谁说恶性通胀hyper-inflation不可能发生
谁说恶性通胀hyper-inflation不可能发生 MBAChina 关于发生“恶性通货膨胀”（hyper-inflation，指通胀失去控制急遽增加）可能性的问题，昨天跟一位与我和里奇私交甚好的朋友讨论了很久。恶性通货膨胀？就如在1923年时发生在德国的一幕，一位妇女将大把大把的德国纸币马克（Reich Mark notes，德国加入欧元区的通用货币）塞进火炉里取暖？
可能你会质问我：“你是疯了，还是傻了？眼下我们就要遭遇史上第二次经济大萧条了！”对这样的问题，我会说：“12个月前，当我们中的一些人认为当时的经济形势正趋向通货紧缩，可能会发生20世纪30年代那样的经济大萧条，你那会儿也觉得他们脑子不正常吗？”我想要说的重点，也正是我们的朋友“弗莱彻”（Fletch）的原话：“如果你确实在脑海里想象过，那么你想的情况就会有可能在现实中发生。
仔细想想，在过去几十年的经济繁荣时期，那些通过回溯历史来预测未来经济的模型完全忽略了发生在20世纪30年代的事情，几乎每一位股市中的“价值投资者”（value investor）发布买进或“清仓”（bottom）信号，都是基于1946年起的数据资料分析。那些用来预测由房价贬值带来风险的模型呢？如今，这个问题对我们来说有些棘手，不是吗？我们在住房抵押*领域建立了一个数万亿的杠杆业务（leveraged business），但从没认真考虑过全国范围内房价贬值、轰然倒塌的严重后果。
我们当初真就那么蠢吗？也许是吧，但是我觉得，事情没这么简单，我们是从小看着那些描述“经济大萧条”（The Great Depression）的新闻短片和纪录片长大的，那些场景都深深地印在我们脑海里，潜意识里我们都在想“太恐怖了！这样的历史绝不能重演。”就我自己而言，大约一年前，我从没把所谓的“可能回到三十年代经济大萧条”的说法当一回事。如今，我们中的很多人都能亲眼见到这般生动的现实。
现在，让我们回到“恶性通货膨胀”这个话题上。眼下，美联储（the Fed）正发挥全力干预货币体系。有效的联邦基金利率（Fed Fund rate，美国最重要的利率，指美国同业拆借市场的利率，一家存托机构利用手上的资金向另一家存托机构借出隔夜*利率）几乎为零。并且，通过购买数百亿的国库券、纸币和债券，以及政府部门的债务、有资产担保的证券和抵押*证券，美联储和国家财政部正在制定或很快就会出台大规模的定量宽松政策（quantitative easing，即在避免信贷危机威胁原本摇摇欲坠的经济的前提下，向银行系统注入超额资金，以维持经济系统的正常运作）。除此之外，新当选总统奥巴马允诺将实施自上个世纪50年代以来最大的财政刺激计划。
所有这些都是来自避免经济大萧条的教科书理论。然而，一旦计划开始运作，我们将要做些什么？随着全球经济的复苏，商品价格再次上涨，又会发生什么？我认为，随着商品价格在短期内上涨，今年春夏的情况会看起来很平淡。更重要的是，当我们开始推进现行做法时，这个世界上最大的债务国，可能要承受数百亿在我们实施定量宽松政策时购买的资产，我们必须要想办法卖出些了，对吧？
问题是，整个金融界都清楚美国必须出售手中的大量资产，继而就会有很多人开始冲在前面，开展抵制通货紧缩的商业贸易。我的一个（从事金融衍生品工作的）朋友前几天问我：“你知道十年后的美元利率互换率（USD interest-rate swap rate）是多少？2.85%！”聪明的人们都打算在那些当美元贬值、国库券和兑换比率迅疾上涨、商品价格居于高位时赚钱的生意上投资。许多此类的交易，并非仅仅是那些投机对冲基金的人们所为。
我真的很担心，一眨眼的功夫，我们就从通货紧缩掉进了恶性通货膨胀。幸运的是，在最后的关键时刻，有人来扼住了通货膨胀——保罗·沃尔克（美国联邦储备局前主席，世界上最具影响力的经济思想家之一；早年尼克松时代作为一位年轻的财政部官员崭露头角，在结束布雷顿森林体系解体中发挥了领导作用）回归华盛顿任职。我不清楚具体的计划将如何遏制通货膨胀，但希望沃尔克先生可以做到。不管在何种情况下，我都可以想象通货膨胀，并且如果我真的这么想，我的脑海中它就真的可能发生。
英文全文《If You Can Picture It, It Can Happen 》
Yesterday I had a long conversation with one of our (Richie and I) very close friends about the possibilities of hyper-inflation. Hyper-Inflation? Like the kind depicted below in 1923 Germany where the woman is stuffing Reich Mark notes into the furnace to keep warm?
You are probably saying, "Are you freakin' nuts? We look like we are ready to enter the next Great Depression!" To that I would say, "Twelve months ago when some of us said there is a probability that we were on our way to deflationary 1930's style depression, did you think that was nuts too?" The point I want to make, and quoting from our friend "Fletch" is "If your mind can actually picture it, then there is a possibility that it could happen."
Think about it. In the boom times of the last couple of decades every model that looked to the past to predict future outcomes completely left out the events of the 1930's. Almost every "value investor" in equities touted strategies that issued buy or "bottom" signals based on data that went "all the way back to 1946." What about models that were used to predict the risk brought on by home price depreciation? We're having a little problem with that now aren't we? We built a multi $trillion leveraged business in housing finance that never seriously considered a nationwide collapse of home values. Were we stupid? Maybe, but I think it was more that fact that we grew up watching newsreels and documentaries of The Great Depression and we stored those images in our minds under the category of "Terrible, can't happen again." I'll speak for myself when I say that up until about a year ago, I never seriously considered the possibility of a return to a 1930's style depression. Now more than a few of us can picture it quite vividly no?
Now lets think about the thought of hyper-inflation. Right now the Fed is flooding the monetary system in full force. Effective Fed Fund rates are practically zero. Additionally, the Fed and Treasury are engaging, or will soon engage in tremendous quantitative easing by buying hundreds of billions of Treasury bills, notes and bonds, Agency debt, Asset-backed securities and Mortgage-backed securities. On top of this, President-Elect Obama is promising the largest fiscal stimulus plan since the 1950's. All of these are text book plays to stave off a depression. However, what are we going to do when it starts working? What happens when commodity prices start spiking again as the global economic machine comes back to life? The short term spikes could make what we saw this spring and summer look pretty tame I think. More importantly, as we start to inflate what do we, the largest debtor nation on earth, do with the trillions of assets we bought when we were heavily engaged in quantitative easing? We're going to have to do a bit of selling right?
The problem is that the entire financial world will know that the U.S. has to sell, so plenty of folks will be front running every anti-deflationary trade out there. A friend of mine who works on a derivative desk asked me the other day, "Do you know what the forward ten-year USD interest-rate swap rate is ten years out? TWO POINT EIGHT FIVE PERCENT!" Smart guys are going to be putting on trades that win when the USD falls, Treasury and swap rates rise sharply and quickly, and commodities spike. A lot of this trading won't just come from evil hedge fund guys. In fact a lot of it will come from managers of real money that will be scared sh*tless that their NPVs are about to be halved. I'm really afraid that we can go from deflation to hyper-inflation in the blink of an eye. Luckily we have the man who slayed inflation the last time around, Paul Volcker back where he belongs in Washington. I don't know what the plan is to head this off, hopefully Mr. Volcker does. Whatever the case is, I can imagine hyper-inflation and if I can imagine it I think there's a possibility in my mind it can happen.
The problem is that the entire financial world will know that the U.S. has to sell, so plenty of folks will be front running every anti-deflationary trade out there. A friend of mine who works on a derivative desk asked me the other day, "Do you know what the forward ten-year USD interest-rate swap rate is ten years out? TWO POINT EIGHT FIVE PERCENT!" Smart guys are going to be putting on trades that win when the USD falls, Treasury and swap rates rise sharply and quickly, and commodities spike. A lot of this trading won't just come from evil hedge fund guys. In fact a lot of it will come from managers of real money that will be scared sh*tless that their NPVs are about to be halved. I'm really afraid that we can go from deflation to hyper-inflation in the blink of an eye. Luckily we have the man who slayed inflation the last time around, Paul Volcker back where he belongs in Washington. I don't know what the plan is to head this off, hopefully Mr. Volcker does. Whatever the case is, I can imagine hyper-inflation and if I can imagine it I think there's a possibility in my mind it can happen.